A monthly time series for transport of travelers is studied, separating for each given month a trend component and estimating the effects of some known perturbations. The residuals of the model are supposed to be correlated and of monthly variances. An example is presented from data of travels by rail and a prediction model is deduced. The general model is linear with ARMA errors and possible changes in the trend.
The world economic crisis has changed the geography of the market for containerization and modified the ideas concerning the carriage of general cargo in maritime transport. As a consequence the "Round the world" concept arose. This tries to combine the will for an economic and social development of this type of transport with the requirements of the energy crisis. After analyzing the use of containerization worldwide and the strategies developed by various ship-owners, this paper uses the results of the computerized model of Liverpool and examines the validity of the "Round the world" concept. It particularly emphasizes the consequences for Europe of the application of such a system.
In the case of an improvment of the level of service for a given transport mode, the representation of the traffic movements consist schematically to make a distinction between two phenomenons: the appearance of new trips, and the simple change in the modal split of trlps, witch would be made in any case on the considered link.About the example of the T.G.V. Paris-South East, and on the base of the first exploitations that I.R.T. has made of the survey "Transports 1981", the author state the following questions:Is the usual representation of phenomenon’s compatible with an improvement in the field of users behaviour modeling? Isn’t necessary to go beyond the simple analysis relating between used transport mode and other trip characteristics, and to make a global simulation of the choice that people make simultaneous for all the modalities of their mobility?